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Gloom and Doom Sells – But Only If We Buy It

June 27, 2019 By William Cavalier

The Politics of Fear

Humanity fundamentally fears the unknown and death.  So playing on the fear of the unknown or death can change how people think and behave. 

Politically, fear is useful.  Lyndon Johnson’s campaign against Barry Goldwater simply implied a vote for Goldwater would end civilization.

As long as a scare tactic is effective – people will continue to use them.  But when the audience realizes the fear claim is just an attempt to motivate our behavior and isn’t real – then the audience may turn on the fear monger and devastate their credibility. 

What is the real agenda?

Look for these key phrases often used in order to build credibility in political or environmental fear tactics:  “It is settled science” or “there is strong academic consensus” or “scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions”:

The tip off to the real agenda which is to gain power is often shown by these phrases:  “Businesses and governments will have to work together”, “private public partnership”, “needs significant long-term private investment and public spending”, we need more supportive policies, laws, and public spending”.

Let’s look at some quotes and judge for yourself whether they were a fear tactic or just a bad prediction.

The Threat

“… we could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade…If we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions… We need to shift to plentiful coal …”  Jimmy Carter (1977)

The Reality

The Threat

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make…The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”  Paul Ehrlich – April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle.

The Reality



The Threat

“Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….”  Peter Gunter, Professor North Texas State University (1970)

The Reality

The Threat

Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

The Reality

The Threat

“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

The Reality

The Threat

Paul Erich predicted that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945; Americans born since 1946 now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980.

The Reality

The Threat

Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

The Reality

The Threat

“The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” Nigel Calder – British science writer

The Reality

Science Says…

“We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have…“Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.” …” Stephen Schneider, a professor of Biology at Stanford University – 1989.

Politics Says…

“We’ve got to … try to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong … we will be doing the right thing anyway in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”  Senator Timothy Wirth – Democrat- Colorado (1988)

Which of These Political Promises Do You Believe Will Save the World?

Bartender Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while selling her “Green New Deal” said that the world will end in 12 years if nothing is done to address climate change.“ Millennials and people, you know, Gen Z…we’re like…the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.”

 A recent analysis by the American Action Forum puts the initial 10-year cost of the AOC’s Green New Deal at $93 trillion or 114% of the GDP OF THE PLANET in 2020.  Now that could actually end the world in 12 years!

Or…

“We must reduce all the emissions that are destroying the planet. However, that requires a change in lifestyle, a change in the economic model: We must go from capitalism to socialism.” Hugo Chavez (RIP)

Or…

“Third world nations are producing too many children too fast…it is time to ignore the controversy over family planning and cut out-of-control population growth.”  Al Gore

Or…

“The first principle is that we can have an effective and comprehensive energy policy only if the government takes responsibility for it and if the people understand the seriousness of the challenge and are willing to make sacrifices.” Jimmy Carter

Final Thought

Do you buy the fear or do you believe Ronald Reagan who said: 

“The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

Filed Under: Politics

US Oil & Gas Industry Key to Meeting World Demand

May 23, 2019 By William Cavalier

In a recent Op-Ed piece in USA Today, R. Dean Foreman, Chief Economist for the American Petroleum Institute, makes the case for natural gas and oil industry as a solid, long-term investment.

Foreman believes there has never been a better time to invest in natural gas and oil.  In a world where security depends on affordable energy, the United States is in an enviable postion.  The According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019  the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 80 years.

When and where wind and solar are affordable, they can contribute to our overall power grid supply.  However both U.S. and international projections indicate fossil fuels will provide more than 75 percent of growing global energy needs in 2050.

Where is U.S. crude oil produced?

Crude oil is produced in 32 U.S. states and in U.S. coastal waters. In 2018, about 68% of total U.S. crude oil production came from five states. The top five crude oil-producing states and their shares of total U.S. crude oil production in 2018 were

  • Texas—40.5%
  • North Dakota—11.5%
  • New Mexico—6.3%
  • Oklahoma—5.0%
  • Alaska—4.5%

In 2018, US domestic oil production reaching the highest amount on record. More cost-effective drilling technology helped to boost production, especially in Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Foreman believes the US oil & gas industry can meet future demand while providing reliability and consistency to the expansion of intermittent energy sources such as solar and wind.  Americans don’t need to choose between renewables and natural gas they all are necessary to meet future domestic and global demand for energy.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Continental Resources Continued Oklahoma Success

May 20, 2019 By William Cavalier

Continental Resources has recently filed completion reports that show a successful well near Greenfield in Blaine County in the STACK play.  This well located at 14N 11W produced more than 1,7000 barrels of oil a day and showed three more Tolbert Federal wells at the same pad site.

The other three wells had similar production of 1,700 barrels of oil a day and a fourth well produced 1,472 barrel of oil a day and 15,099 Mcf of gas.  The wells were spudded October 2018 and completed in March 2019. 

Continental Resources continues its success in the SCOOP play east of Chickasha in Grady County with The Pyle 2-26-25xhw well with production of 1,640 barrels of oil a day.   The Pyle well was spudded in October 2018 and completed in February 2019. 

Filed Under: Energy Projects

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